The four seasons
of Bitcoin
Every ~4 years, the halving restarts the cycle: first comes euphoria, then distribution, then capitulation, and finally accumulation.
We start with the raw data, then see where the cycle's hand takes us.
What all of this is built on
Every visual below rests on two empirical patterns:
(1) a stubbornly regular temporality,
(2) a steady contraction in price amplitude.
(1) A stubbornly regular temporality
| Cycle | Top | Bottom | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | June 9, 2011 | Nov. 18, 2011 | 162 |
| 2013–15 | Nov. 29, 2013 | Jan. 14, 2015 | 411 |
| 2017–18 | Dec. 17, 2017 | Dec. 15, 2018 | 363 |
| 2021–22 | Nov. 10, 2021 | Nov. 21, 2022 | 376 |
| 2025–? | Oct. 6, 2025 | not confirmed | 248 ↗ |
| From → to | Days |
|---|---|
| Nov. 18, 2011 → Jan. 14, 2015 | 1,153 |
| Jan. 14, 2015 → Dec. 15, 2018 | 1,431 |
| Dec. 15, 2018 → Nov. 21, 2022 | 1,437 |
| From → to | Days |
|---|---|
| June 9, 2011 → Nov. 29, 2013 | 904 |
| Nov. 29, 2013 → Dec. 17, 2017 | 1,479 |
| Dec. 17, 2017 → Nov. 10, 2021 | 1,424 |
| Nov. 10, 2021 → Oct. 6, 2025 | 1,426 |
(2) A steady contraction in price amplitude
Dates: Bitbo (2011 high June 9 · 2013 high Nov. 29 · 2018 low Dec. 15 · 2022 low Nov. 21) · VanEck (2017 top Dec. 17) · Axios (Coinbase record Nov. 10, 2021) · CoinMarketCap (ATH $126,198, Oct. 6, 2025). Figures can shift by 1–5 days depending on the exchange, daily close vs intraday. The current cycle has no confirmed bottom: 248 days since the top, "top to bottom" is only measurable in hindsight.
You are here.
The needle marks the position within the cycle, from one halving to the next. Drag the slider from 2012 to today, and beyond into the projected cycles V & VI (shown in blue).
Buy while nobody's watching. Boredom is the discount; build the bag before the crowd returns.
Let the trend pay you, and DCA your sells on the way up. Euphoria is an exit signal, not an entry.
No falling knives. Cash is a position; patience is the trade. Let capitulation come to you.
Protect capital first. Slow DCA if convinced, study, touch grass.
Four cycles, one rhyme
⛏ halving · ☀ cycle top · ❄ cycle bottom. Hover or tap the curves to explore. In overlay mode, click the legend to show / hide cycles.
The cycle ledger
Same score every time: a top 12 to 18 months after the halving, then a 75 to 86% drawdown. But the amplitude is contracting: the market grows, the multiples get smaller.
The anatomy of bear markets
Five cycle tops, followed by five brutal resets.
Numbered from the 2011 top onward, each cycle gives the same conclusion: the drawdown remains violent, but the amplitude keeps compressing as Bitcoin matures.
Use the projection below and test the pattern yourself.
Numbering note: bears are counted from the 2011 top, one cycle before the first halving, so bear cycle N = halving cycle N−1 (e.g. bear cycle 6 = halving cycle V of the ledger above).
Bottom projection · Cycle 5
extrapolation · not a prophecyDrawdowns compress by ~5.4 points per cycle on average (−94 → −87 → −84 → −77.5). If the rhyme holds, Cycle 5's drawdown would land near −72/−73%. The slider lets you test other assumptions.
What if history rhymes again?
The theoretical bottom
Two clocks are ticking toward the same window.
The first one starts at the top: in mature Bitcoin cycles, top → bottom took 411, 363, and 376 days, about 383 days on average. From the Oct. 6, 2025 top, that points to late Oct. / Nov. 2026.
The second one starts at the last bottom: bottom → bottom took 1,431 and 1,437 days across the last two cycles. From Nov. 21, 2022, that also lands around late Oct. 2026.
Where we are: 248 days since the top, no confirmed bottom yet.
The next halving
The 5th halving is expected around April 2028. The block reward will drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC, an impact on issuance that has become almost symbolic.
The takeaways
Weekly DCA from today through the projected bottom window (~$35K, late Oct. 2026) and beyond. Buying the whole $35-50K zone matters more than catching the exact low: a steady weekly plan lands an average cost basis around $42-45K. In season terms: aggressive in winter and spring, slow down when summer returns.
The 520-550 day post-halving rule points the next top to ~Sep. 2029 (~$165K). Start laddering out early, around $120-130K, and sell weekly through the window: that prices the average exit near $140-150K, roughly 15% below the top. Sell only in summer. Never be a hero in autumn.
Being 3 months early or late inside the accumulation zone costs almost nothing: prices flatline in the cave. Being 3 months late on the exit is expensive: the post-top bleed runs ~380 days. So: a wide, boring buy window, and a sell window that starts early and ends before autumn. Full loop on the projection: buy ~$44K avg, sell ~$145K avg, about ×3.3 on invested capital in 3 years.
test any variant of this plan in the DCA tool belowpattern extrapolation, not financial advice
The DCA simulator
You will never catch the exact top or bottom, so spread your orders instead. Pick a side: accumulate on the way down, or ladder out of a stack on the way up. Every number below is computed from this page's own price path (solid history, then the dashed projection) and recalculates live as you move the controls.
projection data ends Dec 2034 · period clamped
blends real history and projection
assumes BTC follows this page's cycle path: solid history, then the dashed projection of sections 01 and 04 · pattern extrapolation, not a forecast · this is not investment advice, do your own research